General Economic Policy Guidelines for the 2027 Fiscal Year

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The Federal Executive, through the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), presented to the H. Congress of the Union the General Economic Policy Guidelines (CGPE) document for the 2027 fiscal year. This macroeconomic framework underpins the Revenue Law Initiative and the Draft Federal Expenditure Budget for said year.

The priority macroeconomic and fiscal aspects of the document are:

  1. Comparative Macroeconomic Framework (2026 vs. 2027)

The macroeconomic framework projects an acceleration of the Mexican economy supported by the domestic market and strategic investment:

Variable

2026 (Approved)

2026 (Estimated Year-End)

2027 (Projected)

GDP Growth (% real annual)

 [1.8, 2.8] [1.0, 2.0]

[1.5, 2.5]

CPI Inflation (% end of period)

3.0

3.5

3.0

28-day Cetes Interest Rate (% end of period)

6.0

6.5

6.0

Exchange Rate (pesos per USD, end of period)

18.9

17.8

18.0

Mexican Crude Oil Mix Price (USD/barrel)

54.9

78.4

61.8

Crude Oil Production Platform (Mbd)

1.8

1.8

1.8

Current Account Deficit (% of GDP)

0.6

0.5

0.6

  1. Key Public Finance Indicators (% of GDP)

Fiscal targets are oriented towards consolidation and gradual deficit reduction:

Fiscal Aggregate

2026 (Approved)

2026 (Estimated Year-End)

2027 (Projected)

Budgetary Revenues

22.5

23.0

23.2

Oil

3.1

3.0

2.5

Non-oil

19.4

20.0

20.7

Tax

15.1

15.4

15.9

Net Paid Expenditure

26.1

26.6

26.7

Programmable paid

18.1

18.9

18.5

Non-programmable

8.0

7.7

8.1

Budgetary Balance (Deficit)

-3.6

-3.6

-3.4

Primary Balance

0.5

0.1

0.5

Public Sector Financial Requirements (PSFR)

-4.1

-4.1

-3.9

Public Debt (HBPSFR)

52.3

54.0

55.0

  1. Revenue Policy and Tax Measures 2027

To strengthen revenues without creating new taxes or raising general rates, modifications to the LISR and LFD are projected:

  • Total Budgetary Revenues: Estimated at 9,156.5 billion pesos (a real growth of 3.9% compared to the 2026 estimate).
  • Control of Income Tax (ISR) Deductions: A mechanism is implemented where companies with profit whose deductions exceed the cap will have a deduction limit equivalent to 96.67% of their taxable income (for those with lower deductions, it is set at 99%). Tax loss carryforwards are allowed to be offset up to 50% of taxable income, extending the deduction period from 10 to 20 years.
  • Net Interest Deduction: Reduced from 30% to 20% of adjusted taxable income.
  • Elimination of ROGS: The Optional Regime for Corporate Groups (ROGS) is eliminated.
  • Simplification for MSMEs (RESICO): Income thresholds to operate in RESICO are expanded up to 5 million pesos for individuals and 50 million pesos for legal entities. An option is allowed to determine VAT by applying a 7% rate on collected transactions without creditability.
  • Capital Repatriation: Preferential ISR rate of 7.5% on the repatriated amount invested in strategic assets and expenses.
  • Specific Tax Incentives: 0% VAT rate for the sale of books, newspapers, and magazines (if they represent at least 90% of total income) and a 10% ISR rate for capital gains in Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in issuers valued under 50 billion pesos.
  • Adjustments to Rights (LFD): Updates in immigration services, radio frequency spectrum, railway track exploitation, sanitary regulation procedures, airspace fees, and CNBV stock market inspection (+16%).
  1. Public Expenditure Policy and Priorities 2027

The proposed total net expenditure will amount to 10,515.1 billion pesos (+0.7% real compared to approved 2026). Programmable expenditure will be 7,311.1 billion pesos.

Priority Social Programs (1,025,388.5 million pesos total):

  • Senior Citizens Welfare Pension: 543,498.4 million pesos.
  • Benito Juárez Scholarship Programs (Total): 190,551.9 million pesos (includes Rita Cetina Scholarship with 133,561.3 million pesos, Upper Secondary Education with 43,932.4 million pesos, and Youth Writing the Future with 13,058.2 million pesos).
  • Women Welfare Pension: 59,356.3 million pesos.
  • Sembrando Vida: 40,500.0 million pesos.
  • Pension for Persons with Permanent Disabilities: 37,436.3 million pesos.
  • Social Housing Program: 34,353.9 million pesos.
  • Youth Building the Future: 25,985.3 million pesos.
  • La Escuela es Nuestra: 20,000.0 million pesos.
  • Production for Welfare and Fertilizers: 17,000.0 million pesos each.

Infrastructure Investment Priorities (560,172.6 million pesos total):

  • Pemex and CFE Projects: 255,529.2 million pesos and 60,991.6 million pesos, respectively.
  • New Trains (Total): 150,875.6 million pesos (highlighting Saltillo - Nuevo Laredo Train with 41,985.8 million pesos, Isthmus of Tehuantepec with 25,000.0 million pesos, Querétaro - Saltillo Train with 24,025.5 million pesos, Querétaro - Irapuato Train with 20,054.7 million pesos, and Maya Train with 17,158.8 million pesos).
  • Highways and Roads: 24,121.2 million pesos.
  • Hydraulic Works (CONAGUA): 22,761.9 million pesos.
  1. State-Owned Enterprises
  • Pemex: A financial surplus of 95.1 billion pesos is projected, supported by a transfer of 81.1 billion pesos from the Federal Government conditioned on liability debt service. Its ceiling for personal services will be 118.6 billion pesos.
  • CFE: A surplus of 25.0 billion pesos is projected, with Federal Government transfers of 90.4 billion pesos and a ceiling on personal services expenditure of 94.0 billion pesos.

Consult the full document published by the Tax Authority at the following link: Criterios Generales de Política Económica 2027 (SHCP)